These are my thoughts. There is tons of fake volume. The amount of real volume is small but significant and if Nash can capture even a small amount of it then we might still see reasonably good volume. There are over 200 exchanges but only about 5 have to sort of volume that I think the Nash team and the community would consider to be "high". Another 6 have enough volume to be considered good enough/worthwhile. They are Binance, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Bitflyer, Kraken, Huobi, Bittrex, OKEx, HitBTC, Upbit, Poloniex. The remaining exchange volume is 99% fake fake fake. But with only 11 exchanges capturing 95% of the real volume, the Nash product will need to be something special to break into this group.
If you look at all of these 11, each has a competitive advantage that Nash will struggle to compete with at the start and it will take some time for it to catch up (6-12 months). For example, Binance is trusted, fast and has a large number of trading pairs. Coinbase is extremely well known, simple to use and trusted. Kraken has been around for ages, is reasonably trusted and has loyal (but not always happy) users. Bitfinex has many advanced trading features. While Nash has some enormous competitive advantages that no other exchange can match, it will take time to catch up in the areas that make the leaders, the leaders.
For those hoping for rapid growth, it’s important to remember that Binance became the market leader within a few months, but that was when everybody was jumping into crypto. Few are now joining the bandwagon for the first time and those that are left are either sitting on extracted stablcoins and unlikely to trade (waiting for the storm to pass), or completely rekt and also unlikely to trade. There are even fewer traders around due to the sheer lack of tradability/volatility at the moment.
Let’s not forget that some exchanges are actually closing in this market – we need to have realistic expectations. The good news is, I think Nash will co-incidentally launch right around the time this obscene downturn comes to an end. It will be a slow road to recovery and this will give Nash time to get the absolutely critical BTC trading pairs incorporated and start adding more and more small cap coins. Once this is done I believe new users will funnel into Nash and existing exchange users might change over as well. I expect, if things progress well, 1-5 million USD per day within a month. Gemini/Bittrex level volume within 6 months. Kraken level in 6+ months and 100 million USD per day by 12 months. With enough trading pairs and advanced trading features Nash might eventually overtake Bitfinex and Binance, which could occur rapidly when the next market growth spurt happens in a year+.