What are your expectations for monthly volume when Nash launches?

exchange
(Hypotheticalidentity) #1
  • $1-5M
  • $6-50M
  • $51-100M
  • $101-500M
  • $500M+

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What’s everyone’s expectation of monthly volume for Nash in the first month? I am expecting $100M (will provide a breakdown for why later) that runs through the matching engine. I’ve had several people message me on Medium and laugh at my projections, and that’s fine, but curious to know what you guys think is realistic.

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(Bunder) #4

You can calculate your monthy profit here:

It is not totally accurate, but you can see what you get with a 500 million volume, 1000 NEX tokens staking for 24 months. You will receive around $ 15 a month.

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(Behind You) #5

The goal should be to have over 5 Million in trading per day. That means 150 Million/Month, which equal about $5 per month when invested 1k, which is like 0.5%/Month.
Per year this would equal about 6% in earnings, which is quite good, when you come from traditional investments.

Anything above that is a nice to have. Below 2.5 million in daily volume is the dangerous area, because you only equal out the natural inflation in the currency. (2-3%)
But wer’re here to make money so our goal should be to be above that.

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(Crypto Eks) #6

I recall the team aiming for top 50 or was that after 6 months from lunch?
The 50th on cmc is making 28M today thats 840M a month. too optimistic? :wink:

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(Vt) #7

Even the shady exchanges like Tokok are trading 80million a day, where 34million is already on ETH/usdt. Seems optimistic to me.

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(Ikbinruig) #8

Pretty sure nearly all of that volume is fake though. Might be quite hard to get in top 25 with legit volume, since most exchanges fake a lot of their volume and make it look like there is a lot more trading going in crypto than there is in reality.

However, I think most people see through this stupid fake volume of most exchanges, so an exchange like Nash might catch a lot of legit volume with the liquidity providers. I believe exchanges fake volume for 2 reasons: First to be noticed by being high in the exchange volume lists and second to make people believe there’s lots of liquidity. Once people actually tried those exchanges with millions of reported volume and realise the liquidity (spread) being very bad and order books almost never being executed (only fake trades inbetween buy and sell orders), then they will realize liquidity (spread) and orders being filled is actually much better on a lower but legit volume exchange.

I think this will be Nash’s strength, having good liquidity (small spread) from the liquidity providers.

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(Hypotheticalidentity) #9

@CryptoEks I believe they said they plan to be in the top 100 at launch; top 50 a quarter after launch.

@vt0 I wouldn’t use TOKOK to reference volume; plenty of wash trading happening there.

24hr Volume for launch pairs
24hr

Total 24hr trade volume is only $1,857,871 which is really poor. If Nash can take 10% of this volume, that’s only $5,573,610/month ($185,787/day).


But look what happens when you account for ETH/FIAT
fiat

That’s $85,863,406/day. Again, using 10% NEX market penetration and now there’s greater volume:

$8,586,340 x 30= $257,590,200/month

FIAT-crypto trade volume is substantially greater than regular crypto trade, and that’s one reason why I believe Nash will succeed. Going back to my first post, I think $100M trade volume should be attainable in the first month if FIAT gateways are ready to go (not even counting on Bitcoin).

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(CryptoUK1) #10

Just checking but you know that the fiat gateways are via third parties and there won’t be fiat pairs on the exchange for the foreseeable future?

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(Hypotheticalidentity) #11

Yes, I understand the gateways are via third parties, but it’s not clear what the UX is for the on/off ramp. For discussion’s sake, let’s use Wells Fargo (US bank) as a gateway partner…

Scenario 1
With Nash launch, Wells Fargo promotes you can now buy crypto with your checking/savings accounts. User logs into Wells Fargo account, and using NEX’s api, can buy/trade on Wells Fargo web page.

Scenario 2
With Nash launch, Wells Fargo promotes you can now buy crypto with your bank login credentials at Nash.io. Users login and trade on Nash.io (seamless and easy).

Nash hasn’t revealed how the 3rd party partner on/off ramps are going to unfold, and it’s probably completely different than how I’ve imagined it. @CryptoUK1 to your point about having direct fiat pairs on exchange, you’re right; they can’t handle user funds until they obtain the correct banking licenses.

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(Vt) #12

That’s indeed not really a lot, probably since USDC is not known that well across the markets. USDT has much more volume, probably only because they were the first USD lookalike to be used in multiple exchanges.

BTC will be the real volume provider on nash.

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(CryptoUK1) #13

This thread explains it. Just from the info the team have given in the past on here

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(Hypotheticalidentity) #14

Thank you; I missed this thread and your clarifying post.

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(John Nash) #15

These are my thoughts. There is tons of fake volume. The amount of real volume is small but significant and if Nash can capture even a small amount of it then we might still see reasonably good volume. There are over 200 exchanges but only about 5 have to sort of volume that I think the Nash team and the community would consider to be "high". Another 6 have enough volume to be considered good enough/worthwhile. They are Binance, Bitfinex, Coinbase, Bitflyer, Kraken, Huobi, Bittrex, OKEx, HitBTC, Upbit, Poloniex. The remaining exchange volume is 99% fake fake fake. But with only 11 exchanges capturing 95% of the real volume, the Nash product will need to be something special to break into this group.

If you look at all of these 11, each has a competitive advantage that Nash will struggle to compete with at the start and it will take some time for it to catch up (6-12 months). For example, Binance is trusted, fast and has a large number of trading pairs. Coinbase is extremely well known, simple to use and trusted. Kraken has been around for ages, is reasonably trusted and has loyal (but not always happy) users. Bitfinex has many advanced trading features. While Nash has some enormous competitive advantages that no other exchange can match, it will take time to catch up in the areas that make the leaders, the leaders.

For those hoping for rapid growth, it’s important to remember that Binance became the market leader within a few months, but that was when everybody was jumping into crypto. Few are now joining the bandwagon for the first time and those that are left are either sitting on extracted stablcoins and unlikely to trade (waiting for the storm to pass), or completely rekt and also unlikely to trade. There are even fewer traders around due to the sheer lack of tradability/volatility at the moment.

Let’s not forget that some exchanges are actually closing in this market – we need to have realistic expectations. The good news is, I think Nash will co-incidentally launch right around the time this obscene downturn comes to an end. It will be a slow road to recovery and this will give Nash time to get the absolutely critical BTC trading pairs incorporated and start adding more and more small cap coins. Once this is done I believe new users will funnel into Nash and existing exchange users might change over as well. I expect, if things progress well, 1-5 million USD per day within a month. Gemini/Bittrex level volume within 6 months. Kraken level in 6+ months and 100 million USD per day by 12 months. With enough trading pairs and advanced trading features Nash might eventually overtake Bitfinex and Binance, which could occur rapidly when the next market growth spurt happens in a year+.

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(Thomas) #16

Well, I guess there will be a tough start and monthly volume will be somewhere between 50 to 100 million.

Other then most of the people I do not believe Nash will have it’s breakthrough with Bitcoin pairs. Well, this will help generate volume, but this is general stuff every exchange have. The real USP will come up with the ongoing adoption in the cryptospace.

In my eyes Nash will be the go to exchange (which most of the users won’t even realize) when you want to spend your tokens. Lets take for example Moonlight. How many really have “LX” token in their own wallet? Nearly nobody, but most of you will have Ether. When you want to use the product of moonlight you have to use “LX” tokens. This is the moment when Nash joins the game. When you use the product from Moonlight you can pay with Ether and Nash will automatically create a conversation from ETH to LX on the actual market price in the background.

This mechanism can be used on several dapps and will create an immense amount of volume. From my perspective Nash should not focus on trading pairs that already have a massive amount of liquidity, Nash should focus on trading pairs that need this kind of mechanism to create a massive amount of liquidity.

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(Suppoman) #17

Looking forward to the launch of Nash! Looking forward to 2020, when the monthly volume will be massive. When everybody is looking at Nash and thinking WoW. That is the WoW effect!

Let’s make Nash Great!

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(Lavalamp) #18

binance is the biggest one with fake volume

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(Lavalamp) #19

I hope Nash will get his own banking license like coinbase, so I can transfer money directly from my bank account to Nash

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(Nicefox) #20

i always wondered where binance gets so much liquidity… i wanted to buy/withdraw some neos yesterday to buy nex, but neo was in suspended mode in binance yesterday, went an checked couple of other exchanges (kucoin, bitmax), the volume is in thousands compared to few millions in binance. I finally had to wait for binance , it did not make sense to get neo from other exchanges.

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(Basti) #21

But that may also be related to the fact that Neo had a few problems yesterday. Read here https://www.reddit.com/r/NEO/comments/akzyke/neo_blocks_explorers_and_forks/?utm_source=reddit-android

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(Nicefox) #22

true, but i was wondering how binance is trading in millions where other exchange have literally no volume…

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