In an attempt to see how far Nash can go to the upside I created this spreadsheet to see how far up the sky is assuming it’s the limit.
Before taking a look there are a few flaws worth pointing out;
The monthly volume column is calculated based on Binance’s monthly volume relative to the total crypto market cap. This is flawed for two reasons one being that volume is only loosely correlated to the market cap. The other being that generally Binance has a ~10% share of the total monthly trading volume which should be taken with a large grain of salt (CZ’s bots etc…)
The second major issue with this spreadsheet is that I’ve scaled everything linearly i.e. as the Bitcoin price increases so does the total crypto market cap and thus the monthly volume (BTC’s market dominance is also fixed at ~50%). These things will all increase together but not necessarily in a linear fashion.
I’ve included indicators in column M to show where we’d need to be to achieve the same monthly volume as the NYSE and NASDAQ (@ethan) which would be somewhere between 1 and 4 trillion a month however both of these markets include derivatives and at this point Nash doesn’t have a derivatives trading licence and there’s no guarantee that derivatives would need to use the same matching engine (which means no fees for stakers, also it’d take > 25yrs to try and steal their market share if it’s even possible).
I’ve also run the spreadsheet all the way up to a total crypto market cap of 80 trillion which would be roughly equivalent to global GDP, the approximate market cap of all the worlds stock exchanges and also a little under the global broad money supply. It’s extremely unlikely that crypto will ever reach that level so I’d say that this is the sky/limit.
Part of the inspiration comes from cryptovoices base money page which assuming bitcoin can absorb all of gold, fiat or gold and fiat would put the price at 0.5-1.5 million which is cool to think about but unrealistic, Bitcoin’s market cap would be 10-30 trillion at that point.
The other facts scattered around the spreadsheet come from visualcapitalist’s info graphic from 2017 illustrating the size of Bitcoins market cap in relation to other markets and assets.
The way I use this spreadsheet is generally to pick a Bitcoin price I think is achievable say 50k and then take a look at what the returns would be like if the price was 5k. The logic being that the dividends in columns E - I are calculated based on a 10% share in the total monthly volume (assuming the user is staking for 2yrs i.e. receiving a 75% share in fees collected and the average trading fee is 0.2%). So at 5k I’m assuming Nash can capture 1% of the total market volume when the price is at 50k. Top 30 exchanges seem to consistently capture about a 1% market share and we’d need to be in the top 5 to get above 2% so this seems realistic enough.
Given recent news I’d say that in the medium term we have a good chance of taking over CoinbasePro in terms of volume (probably the only exchange with accurate volume figures thanks to US regulation) and stealing a nice slice of Binance’s market share assuming we can get the liquidity (if we can’t get liquidity then we might as well go home now). My 2-3yr target for Nash is 12 billion in monthly volume putting the token price at $40-$80 and monthly return at ~$3.3k for 10k tokens. 12 billion is approx 1% of the NYSE’s monthly volume and equivalent to binance’s claimed volume in a bear market (the bull market will have returned by 2021-2 and Binance was supposedly doing 90bil monthly volume in the last bull market). At that point Bitcoin would be around 30k well short of the 100k, 200k, 300k 1mil and 1.5 mil predictions that have been floating around.
This spreadsheet is just a little experiment with numbers I wanted to do, if you’d like to suggest any additions I’m open to modifying it however given it’s completely speculative and not likely to be even remotely accurate (see column A for date at which we’ll be seeing the desired returns) I’m not taking it that seriously. As usual none of this is in any way financial advice etc, etc…
Edit: credit to Nick at stakingnex.io for providing a sweet interface to double check my maths.
Monthly return per token multiplied by 12 and then calculate at 5% and 10% return (annual).
((E2*12/1000)/5)*100 in this case E2 is the monthly return for 1k tokens.
Actually it’ll be December 2028, I made a mistake when updating earlier… Maybe hoping for $39 in the mean time might at least help us wait, 6 billion average monthly volume should be achievable.
I like stakingnex.io, nicely done… I think it’s important to be patient… It’s hardly to believe that Nash will achieve 1 billion USD of monthly volume in a few months… Consider the start and compare it to IDEX & Switcheo… Those 2 are definitely:
ugly
slow
have less features
etc etc etc etc
but still… both are DEXs and people are not used to use DEXs, don’t have confidence to use it etc. I would love to see 1B USD in a year or so… It will be super challenging to achieve it. Nash is also communicating plan to be really huge exchange by 2030 so they know and realised how long this journey is going to be…
I’m expecting when using Nash that you won’t be able to tell it’s a dex from the user experience. Should just be like using Coinbase/Coinbase Pro or other Cexs - maybe simpler in some ways too.
There won’t be the need to continuously keep using your keys, let alone numerous for different chains which could have been a sticking point or made newbies uncomfortable. The speed and liquidity should also hopefully be good enough.
I agree that it won’t be easy to reach $1B monthly volume but if the team deliver a very good product then I don’t see why it can’t reach that number in a relatively short time.
I was writing about it a bit in my Nash article… Imagine all of us will stake all NEX tokens. Private investors will do the same. Only a very very small portion of NEX would be available => luxury. People would fight for it even more. 50M max cap, 25M for Nash team + private investors, 25M in our hands. We may play significant role in this… pls think of it
Something I learned during this time of studying NEX, is that all current DEX are CEX, because making a deposit you lose control of your assets.
NEX is the first real DEX, everyone knows, it’s no coincidence that Binance came out on the run with his DEX after the NEX announcements.
Binance is a great danger to have so much money in his power, CZ knows, also blocks NEO and GAS to lower the volume of the currency, I think NEX / Nash is a big threat to Binance.
Anyone who reviews the work of NEX ends up amazed.
For those of you who are fans of TA this chart puts Bitcoin at $150k by August 2023.
Using the method mentioned above assuming volume scales with BTC’s market cap, if NEX can capture just 1% of that volume the price will be between $220-$450 @ 5-10% annualised return and those with 1k tokens can expect $1.9k monthly dividends on a 2yr stake.
BTC @ $150k would equate to a $2.5T market cap which is only 1/3 of the Gold market cap.
(lambo)