Speculative Returns Volume 2, Nash's 1 billion user goal and Legitimate BTC trade volume (Also not Financial Advice)

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(Cypher Investor) #1

As a follow up to my previous post and in response to @kazanchev’s comment about legitimate volume, I though I’d take a look at potential returns from a different angle by using Bitwise’s findings and Nash’s 1 billion user goal.

According to Bitwise’s report which excludes all alt-coin trade volume, only Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Bitflyer, Gemini, Itbit, Bittrex and Poloniex have genuine BTC volume when traded against stable coins. Considering BTC / fiat and stable coin pairs are usually the largest markets on these exchanges for the sake of this post I’m assuming the alt-coin volume on these exchanges is also legitimate. Binance may be an exception here as it’s monthly volume is considerably higher however Binance has a very large number of alt-coin markets and also offers KYC free accounts as long as 24hr withdrawals don’t exceed 2 BTC so it is plausible that their alt-coin volume could also be legitimate.

Nash has stated their goal is to achieve a 1 billion user count by 2030.
According to the UN global population will be around 8 billion by 2030 and according to the World Bank 65% of the population is between 15 and 64. This would imply that if Nash is to be succesful in reaching their goal that 1 in 5 people between 15 and 64 will be a Nash user.

Out of the exchanges mentioned above I’d say there’s a higher chance that Coinbase’s alt-coin volume is also legitimate so to use them as an example…

In Q4 2018 Coinbase had approximately 25 million users, 400k daily active users resulting in approximately $3 billion in monthly volume.
Using the same scale 1 billion registered users would equate to, 16 million daily active users and $120 billion in monthly volume.
$120 billion in monthly volume would be equivalent to 10% of the New York stock exchange’s monthly volume or 5% of NASDAQ’s global volume. DX exchange now offers stock-crypto trading and with the correct licences in the future Nash will be able to do the same, so I’d say 10% of NYSE’s trading volume is a real possibility.

For those curious on how Nash can achieve this level of market penetration and adoption checkout @RDB1983’s posts on The Nash Effect and Product Virality if you haven’t already.

Assuming Bitcoin’s price scales linearly with the volume as implied in the previous post’s spreadsheet Bitcoin would be at $50k with a $750 billion market cap, equivalent to just 10% of gold’s market cap. Assuming 50% Bitcoin dominance a total crypto market cap of $1.5 trillion would be achieved, just 7.5% of global base money supply and 2% of global stock markets.

Since it’s becoming more popular to measure gains in satoshis rather than dollars I thought I’d make some speculation about what kind of dividends users might expect in BTC terms as opposed to USD. I took the monthly volumes of Kraken Coinbase Bitfinex and Binance and calculated what the monthly and annual yield would be in BTC terms.

Exchange Monthly yield per 1k tokens Annual yield per 1k tokens Token price @ 10% yeild
Binance 0.126 1.512 0.0151
Bitfinex 0.018 0.216 0.0021
Coinbase 0.016 0.192 0.0019
Kraken 0.014 0.168 0.0016
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(Trust Yourselves ) #2

Thank you for your post. One critical thing to note is that you have based your calculations of a potential volume with 1 billion users , Based on today’s usage of Crypto .
So… you would be better off comparing to Nasdaq’s volume which exists today. But then take consideration that:

  1. That all assets will be tokenised in the future
  2. That Nash will offer a range of products and not just trades.
  3. Coinbase really is just one big fiat gateway / bank
  4. Self custody may mean that Nash will have many institutional investors

I know my comment is short but basically,
The potential Nash volume with 1 billion users (2030) could actually be bigger then Nasdaq’s volume of today .

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(Mao Mao) #3

The 1billion users include the payments solutions that nash will be providing in the future. Digital payments can easily bring world users together.

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(mtanev) #4

You can do with your time whatever you wish, but I think you should spend it for other much meaningful things, as making such predictions and analyses is basically worthless. I mean no one knows if Bitcoin or Nash will be around in 11 years from now. Also not to forget the fact that such an analysis is being done when the exchange is not even live yet. Have a great weekend!

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(Mao Mao) #5

@mtanev
If someone is still believing that Bitcoin would have a chance to be dead in 11years, then i guess they need to do more fundamental studies on what’s happening already in the finance world. With big corps embrancing cryptos in 2019, a decentralized bitcoin and big banks like JP Morgan building crypto trading desks and the SEC ruling that Bitcoin and Ethereum isnt a security, we can safely say that Bitcoin is here to stay, and has stayed for 10years already.

Im sure i havent list out all the fundamentally strong news… what kind of confirmation u need still im wondering…

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(Cypher Investor) #6

I’d say it comes down to perception, there’s two things worth considering here the relationship of time and value as well as the relationship of time and meaning.

Time and Value.
Assuming a person is young and lives in a reasonably well developed nation with access to some form of formal education their time is worth somewhere between $30 and $100 an hour. So let’s say the time taken to write this post was 2 hours and another hour was spent writing this response. That equals a total of 3 hours at say $60 the cost for me to write this post and response would be $180.
Now the post is actually a $180 dollar loss even worse than worthless…

Or maybe there some value to be found in the original post and this response…

This post and the original are both purely speculative so for either of them to be of any value speculation or speculators would need to be of value. According to the CME group all types of speculators bring liquidity to the market place. Providing liquidity is a crucial market function that enables individuals to easily enter or exit the market. In addition to liquidity Investopedia argues “while people may recognize speculators’ importance in preventing shortages and smoothing prices, very few associate speculation with guarding against manipulation. In markets with healthy speculation, that is many different speculators participating, it is much harder to pull off a large-scale manipulation and much more costly to attempt it”. Lower chances of manipulation and improved liquidity sounds good so far…

So for each person that reads this post the potential for further speculator growth increases, decreasing the chances of manipulation and increasing the chances of higher liquidity. Nash will also need to have hedgers and arbitrageurs for the market to be healthy so if a user isn’t interested in speculating they’re still useful to the ecosystem as either of the other options.

Maybe I’m trying to spend 10,000 hours or less mastering the skill of speculation, 3 hours spent on this post and response is 3 hours closer to the goal then. Maybe both Nash and Bitcoin fail in the next 11 years but by then I’ll have 10,000 hours of speculation experience, like Richard Tyler Blevins I’ll have “wasted” 10,000 hours on Halo (Bitcoin and Nash) only to make the switch to Fortnite (Whichever digital asset (or non-digital) becomes the Google/Amazon of the future) and be able to make a comfortable living for myself and my family.

Maybe someone is on the fence about getting involved in crypto unsure about the potential, they come to read this post and decide to make the jump. They dive down the rabbit hole buy some Bitcoin, Nash and Doge for good measure, 11 years from now Bitcoin and Nash have failed but Doge is at $3k and they make $1million now my $180 loss is someone else’s million dollar gain.

Crypto has some serious gravitational potential energy just like the internet did back in 1999 if Max Keiser is to believed the crypto’s GPE is on the scale of a black hole, maybe more or less than that but who knows right? High risk and high reward for those who have the courage and patience.

Time and Meaning.
So what’s the point of posting this, nothing is permanent and ultimately there wont be much difference between this post and a comment made in an AOL chatroom in 1999.

Let’s assume this post is viewed by 1000 people and of those only 1 decides to take action and succeeds in generating a surplus of wealth for themselves. That person is now able to use this surplus to bring benefit to their family and community. Fortunately for me since we’re all just 1 person away from having an effect on a million people and 2 people away from a billion by 2030 the odds will be 1 in 8 that I’ll be positively impacted should that person do something useful with their new surplus. It doesn’t really matter what that person does either it could be charity like helping to build a school, hospital, monastery, mosque, church, synagogue or just using the time made available by that surplus to help others, maybe 3 hours of my time results in 300 or more free hours of theirs.

Maybe no-one takes action after reading the first part of the post but then they come to this response and after checking out some of the content in the links attached decide to make some other kind of positive change in their life. This post and response might just be the spark that starts a fire for someone without either of us ever being aware… or it might not to me it doesn’t really matter I’ve already incurred the intended benefit.

As far as I’m concerned the risk on this post is no greater than $200 of time and the potential reward can’t be measured which is why I find it meaningful and am happy to spend the time making it. Hopefully you or someone else who bothers to read this far manages to extract some value from it there’s plenty to be found for those who are curios.

I’m not sure if your response is pessimistic, realistic or trolling, there aren’t many pessimistic self-made billionaires so I don’t see the value in that. Trolling could be considered useful as it has lead to this response, even if your comment is realistic value can still be derived from the mistake made so I’ll politely disagree about it’s “worthlessness”.

930 word response to a 72 word comment, congrats that’s a 1290% ROI on words alone :smiley:

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(Nash101) #7

Love your response!
You have already successfully impacted ones life.

Nice thoughts and thanks for sharing. Not only that you made some assumption, you also let others to be part of your valuable thoughts and information, both philosophical and rational.

Cheers

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(Nash101) #8

One of the possible catalysts would also the listing in a conventional stock market like London, New York, Frankfurt or Stuttgart. The connection of conventional market and digital assets is crucial for the success.

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(Trust Yourselves ) #9

Another point:
The current stock exchanges only cater for the wealth individuals/ companies on a 9am-5pm, 5 days a week basis. Imagine when these stocks are trading for everyone to get involved and being available 24/7.

It really is hard to grasp how big exchange volumes can be.

I predict exchanges like Binance will have to quietly and independently invest or start up a separate exchange in order to get involved in the Security trading market.

It may take a few years but the regulatory compliant approach Nash is taking will pay off for them.

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(Nash101) #10

This definitely changes the game in the future. 24/7 of trading assets has a huge impact on markets.
But to be honest I am not a broker or an investment banker.

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(Happy Benny) #11

I AM a broker/portfolio manager and the markets technically already function on a, close to, 24/7 basis. Futures, options, after market trading, pre-market trading as well as equities (and other products) being traded on multiple platforms and in multiple time zones, means that for most people - there really is no difference there.

As to the dream of “imagine everybody could be involved” - most (with any investable capital) can already open a small broker account with $500 or less in starting value - not just in the US. Or one can open access to trading via ones current banking/finance institutions.

So who are those masses that will change things? The ones with NO investable assets somewhere in a developing country with no access to (much if any) internet? Will that affect trading volumes?

Anyway’ as a NEX/NASH investor I hope for the best - but let us also be realistic here please.

Cheers!

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(Nash101) #12

Good to know. Thanks for the insights.

Regarding the “everybody could be part of it” and that it is more or less already possible: I would stick to the statement “Old clothes in a new robe”. You might attract a new niche or target audience with those kind of new assets.
Stock market seems super uncool to our new generation kids. Maybe digital assets seem more attractive for the digital natives generation.

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(Owl ) #13

I also think we have to be realistic here, these things will take time. One billion users is a very ambitious goal indeed.

However, I do believe that the upcoming mobile app will be one of the key factors in gaining more users especially in the developing countries. Many people in those countries may not have access to a desktop computer whereas smartphones are becoming ubiquitous in the developing world.

Christina Bonnington (2015) writes on Wired that ‘[f]or those in many developing countries, a smartphone is their first computer and their only Internet-connected device.’ Acquiring a billion users could prove to be challenging without a mobile app, but with the eventual mobile release, I’m sure Nash will open up new financial possibilities and solutions to the people living in the developing countries. This will without a doubt bring in millions of new users, which makes me believe having one billion users is quite achievable.

But as we all should remember, Rome wasn’t built in a day.

Reference:

Bonnington, C. 2015 ‘In Less Than Two Years, a Smartphone Could Be Your Only Computer’. [online] WIRED. Available at: https://www.wired.com/2015/02/smartphone-only-computer/ [Accessed 10 Apr. 2019].

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(Gms) #14

Yes, and not only in developing countries. For people like my mom & dad (she is 67 years old, he is 69) it is also much easier to use a simple mobile app than a complex web page with many functions. My parents invested in Bitcoin and a few other cryptocurrencies and I regularly see them working with the Blockfolio app. My father cannot handle purchasing for example. My mother does but then it goes no further than Coinbase. Withdrawing Bitcoin from Coinbase to exchanges such as Binance to buy altcoins is a completely different task.

A simple app that allows them to convert fiat to crypto and where they can manage and view their portfolio will do the job!

I hope that Nash can make the difference!

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(Njb) #15

Bitcoin will 100% be around 10 or 100 years from now. Nash will also be around, if it is successful, which I believe it will be. I have no doubt that Nash can achieve its goal of 1 billion users by 2030. Making an analysis or writing a post here is a good use of time in my opinion.

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