As a follow up to my previous post and in response to @kazanchev’s comment about legitimate volume, I though I’d take a look at potential returns from a different angle by using Bitwise’s findings and Nash’s 1 billion user goal.
According to Bitwise’s report which excludes all alt-coin trade volume, only Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, Bitstamp, Coinbase, Bitflyer, Gemini, Itbit, Bittrex and Poloniex have genuine BTC volume when traded against stable coins. Considering BTC / fiat and stable coin pairs are usually the largest markets on these exchanges for the sake of this post I’m assuming the alt-coin volume on these exchanges is also legitimate. Binance may be an exception here as it’s monthly volume is considerably higher however Binance has a very large number of alt-coin markets and also offers KYC free accounts as long as 24hr withdrawals don’t exceed 2 BTC so it is plausible that their alt-coin volume could also be legitimate.
Nash has stated their goal is to achieve a 1 billion user count by 2030.
According to the UN global population will be around 8 billion by 2030 and according to the World Bank 65% of the population is between 15 and 64. This would imply that if Nash is to be succesful in reaching their goal that 1 in 5 people between 15 and 64 will be a Nash user.
Out of the exchanges mentioned above I’d say there’s a higher chance that Coinbase’s alt-coin volume is also legitimate so to use them as an example…
In Q4 2018 Coinbase had approximately 25 million users, 400k daily active users resulting in approximately $3 billion in monthly volume.
Using the same scale 1 billion registered users would equate to, 16 million daily active users and $120 billion in monthly volume.
$120 billion in monthly volume would be equivalent to 10% of the New York stock exchange’s monthly volume or 5% of NASDAQ’s global volume. DX exchange now offers stock-crypto trading and with the correct licences in the future Nash will be able to do the same, so I’d say 10% of NYSE’s trading volume is a real possibility.
Assuming Bitcoin’s price scales linearly with the volume as implied in the previous post’s spreadsheet Bitcoin would be at $50k with a $750 billion market cap, equivalent to just 10% of gold’s market cap. Assuming 50% Bitcoin dominance a total crypto market cap of $1.5 trillion would be achieved, just 7.5% of global base money supply and 2% of global stock markets.
Since it’s becoming more popular to measure gains in satoshis rather than dollars I thought I’d make some speculation about what kind of dividends users might expect in BTC terms as opposed to USD. I took the monthly volumes of Kraken Coinbase Bitfinex and Binance and calculated what the monthly and annual yield would be in BTC terms.
|Exchange||Monthly yield per 1k tokens||Annual yield per 1k tokens||Token price @ 10% yeild|