Hello NEX-community,
you may have seen the video from MMcrypto on youtube:
What are your thoughts about it? Is he missing something or calculating wrong?
Greetings
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Ridiculous. He is saying NEX is possibly overvalued and projecting 2-5x lol. He thinks 10x is out of the question.
Just ridiculous
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Aside from the corny intro, I actually found it pretty informative and non biased.
A realistic perspective on potential volume probabilities of the exchange based on the current market, and its reflective token price based on its dividend yield.
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Yeah it´s a bit excessive in the beginning but you can fast forward/skip this part.
Well - summarized he says that the 25 Million for the ICO is already a fair valued price and 5-10x could be unrealistic. @anon73805886
Of course he has no crystal ball and I also hope for more in the future @Olu.
I thought the same @cheesedonkey 
.
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It all depends on the amount of volume that the exchange will attract. That will be the itrinsic value of the token. Next to that, crypto is a space of speculation. Therefore, you can imagine that the traded price of the token will be higher than the intrinsic value.
Nice illustration: 
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When the guy starts comparing NEX to aphelion as far as possible revenue then he has no idea. NEX doesn’t even have a product yet so he is basing his opinions of other DEX exchanges and trying to do a comparative. He seems to not understand NEX wont be like any other DEX and will offer many things no other DEX does like Cross chain trading, Fiat Gateways, Payment service, Simple and easy interface, High Speed complex trading capability.
Very easy to sit there with no information and make numbers up.
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Of course it would be better to evaluate if we would already have a released product. Hoping for a Christmas update to be honest.
It’s not coming in Christmas. Just wait for new year, somewhere in the middle of January 2019 is the Live preview, and Live going of the Exchange is maybe somewhere in February 2019, the moment when te Bullrun starts. Because it’s not possible to delay the ETF rejection or approvement anymore. So possibilities to get an approvement of the ETF’s and trigger to start the Bullrun.
But: I definitely don’t know. 
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I maybe agree with the formula’s variables but definitely not their values 
NEX probability to make the 100M a year in my opinion is higher than 10% and I am staking for 2 years 
its a good way to give a token a “current” value but its not a price forecast.
Pretty much, NEX token price can’t really be predicted because it all depends on the volume that NEX can generate.
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And people love dividend! So I bet that there will be a lot of people wanting the actual token to stake which makes it higher in price. NEX the new Gold? 
just kidding.
His secret formula is based just on his “gut” feeling about probabilities of volume. Result is therefore completely arbitrary. Another mistake is his assumption that circulating supply will be 25 millions. In reality it will be way lower since most tokens will be staked. If Nex will bring just a decent volume and will make it into top 50 exchanges ( I think Fabio mentioned it as a goal in Amsterdam) people will try to buy Nex tokens, but since most tokens will be staked, price will increase.
REPLY
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I would agree with you regarding the regulatory advancement, but any accretion in value without a substantial volume increase to back it up will still be pure speculation. For example “We have this regulatory framework, therefore, the volume must come”. If the volume never comes, then the dividends won’t catch up to the speculation.
Ahhh MMCrypto, the same guy who told his subscribers not to buy NEX because of lack of MVP.
Nobody can’t evaluate NEX right now, only the team. This kind of video only make you losing time
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Already at 6:24, he say it is “unlikey” for DEXs to get into the top 25 in terms of volume, meaning he has no clue what he’s talking about. Neon Exchange is not a “DEX”. For all practical purposes, it is centralised, but your funds are non-custodial. That’s all. Also, it aims, for all intents and purposes, to be bigger than Binance with a much greater vision and goals, including margin trading, index funds, fiat onramp, etc. To compare NEX to a DEX is just poor (or lack of) research.
7:10 compares it with Aphelion, which is NOTHING like NEX and not even comparable. It’s like comparing Binance with IDEX. For all intents and purposes, Neon Exchange will be as fast and as easy-to-use as Binance, with the main difference being that Neon Exchange will be MORE user-friendly, EASIER to use, and non-custodial, so your funds are even more safu than on Binance. Aphelion was a failed project with a failed token that relied almost entirely on illegal NEX trading to make up its volume. What a terrible comparison!
“Unlikely” simply because he feels it is unlikely. Evidence entirely based on “muh feels”.
Watch this video in 1 - 2 years time from the launch of the platform and staking and see what has happened.
He thinks 25 million is a fair valuation of the project - well, pre-launch obviously. But after staking has begun and we have good volume, then the current valuation is not by any means fair. It would have to be much higher in value. A 10x is also quite likely within 1 year, in my opinion.
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