Setting up rational volume expectations

community
exchange
(D Raky) #1

I just want to clear this up, since I think many people could have too high-volume expectations before the launch. If you use coinmarketcap.com as the sole indicator for measuring the exchange volumes, you have been deceived, as almost all the volume reported on the website is fake.

In this report for the SEC you can see how Bitwise argue, that 95% of the volume is fake and that only 10 exchanges do report real traded volume. On page 60 (I have captured the slide and attached it below) you can see the average real volume they assign to each exchange. $ 1bn would mean that Nash would become 3rd largest regulated exchange in the crypto universe, which I think is very ambitious goal indeed. It would even become larger than Coinbase ($8bn valuation).

However, we should not expect any enormous volumes that are presented all over the internet. I would even be cautious believing the volumes on the! stakingnex.io. Though, it would be nice for Nash to hit those numbers.

I just want to make it clear so that we all could appreciate what is going on here and that we are here for the long run and not for short term profits, that would result from faking the volume. Feel free to read the whole 227 pages as I did, I think at least the first 100 pages are definitely worth it.

Have a great one and I am looking forward to the launch!

7 Likes
Speculated Returns (not financial advice)
(Trust Yourselves ) #2

So we’re looking at about 30$ a month in staking rewards per 1k nex with a volume of 1billion per month.

(CryptoUK1) #3

The $27m daily volume for Coinbase Pro was the average over a few day period at the beginning of the month. Currently around $60m (~$1.8B monthly) in the past 24 hours. Same with Bittrex and Kraken. Not sure what their average is over the past 6 months or year.

But yeah, best to look at the regulated exchanges for a realistic idea of potential volume. In future, Nash should have features and products that they don’t currently have which should bring further volume.

(Hypotheticalidentity) #4

I am guilty of having irrational expectations of volume, and I think this Bitwise PDF provides some optics into what many already suspect (heavily inflated and fake volume). That said, it should be noted that the report left out South Korean exchanges (which are more regulated than ever), and the purpose of this report is to help Bitwise’s BTC ETF receive approval. It’s also important to note the numbers posted on slide 60 are for BTC related volume only, not volume of all exchange assets (ETH, LTC, etc, etc.).

Exchange Daily Monthly Compliance USD EUR GBP JPY CAD
Binance 1177567609 23833684351
Bitfinex 86358529 3240027331 X X X X X
Kraken 61833363 1784271493 X X X X X
Coinbase Pro 60670019 2185129302 X X X X
Bittrex 62508210 1319466218 X X
Bitstamp 46392452 1216012615 X X X
bitFlyer 12102948 348391822 X X
Poloniex 10392773 313940185 X
Gemini 9756158 302052090 X X

Using the exchanges in the report, the aggregate monthly volume is still $34B. Exchanges with fiat gateways have very healthy amounts of volume. Now think about Nash’s value proposition in relation to these exchanges:

  • Compliant Check
  • Performant Check
  • Secure Check
  • Fiat on/off ramps Check
  • International Check

What percentage of the $34B pie do you think Nash will take? .1%? 1%? 10%?

5 Likes
(CryptoUK1) #5

Ah okay thanks for pointing that out. I just had a quick glance at the pdf the OP posted. Still to get round to reading the full report

(Rory) #6

Also we can potentially look beyond the current market cap. How many people who come newly into crypto will potentially use it due to what we hope is a very user friendly UI and simplified exchange process?

(Cammofunk) #7

Without btc trading pair and limited selection of trading pairs, it will take awhile for this engine to full throttle. My bets gemini levels at the beginning… so $30 million a month. That website doesn’t allow under 100m haha.

(John Nash) #8

Response from coinmarketcap. They need to do their bit to stop encouraging the fake volume behavior by the exchanges

(John Nash) #9

I looked at the Bitwise presentation and it mentions that all the above exchanges (except Binance) has special surveillance software systems monitoring trading behavior to help safeguard against manipulation. I apologize if this is a question that has been previously addressed, but will Nash use any equivalent systems?

1 Like
(Blondie) #10

That would mean a roi of 3 year. Considering an average investment in a "normal"company being 20 years…“Gettin’ paid over here!”

(Real Nex Man) #11

I would be very happy to get $30 a month on 1k coins , if that is stable. Only 33 months to RIO , I would be over the moon.

1 Like
(Vt) #12

Assuming that tokok volume is real, NEX tokens themselves are already causing 1 million in trading volume today. That’s a good start and close tot total poloniex volume. Hopefully we’ll be able to trade NEX on :nash_n: very soon.

Has someone already investigated the volume of Tokok by the way? They do have a suspicious amount of trades trading 20-30 nex.

(Cammofunk) #13

could be bots, but both exchanges and the public have bots so it’s hard to know. I feel like if it was fake volume the price would stay more constant than it has been, or even go down for awhile

(Nick) #14

Yeah it’s fake. Just check the order history. About 95% is in the buy/sell spread :confused:

(Ihab) #15

but nash can’t list their own token :pensive:

(Vt) #16

Anyway, switcheo is having $325k NEX volume after a single day of trading. Hopefully the trading license will be available within the next months.

(Bunder) #17

Nope, not yet, maybe NEX will be listed by the officila launch. :slight_smile:
Hopium somewhere in June :rocket:

1 Like
(FCC) #18

Thanks @D_Raky I think that the Bitwise presentation is something that everyone that is serious about their investment in Nash should read. But just reminder that all the points @hypotheticalidentity have raised are true:

  • The report is only concerned with BTC (Bitcoin) volumes, excluding all alts including ETH.
  • The report excluded an enormous amount of exchanges with the 1M daily “real” volume. Not all volume on the exchange that have lots of “fake” volume is indeed fake.
  • Separating what is “real” and “fake” volume is not an exact science. It is based on analysis of the trading data and assumptions. But specially on smaller exchanges you can have a different market dynamics that would make it look “fake” but it is not, for example it could be the preferred exchange for an OTC desk at that jurisdiction that executes large iceberg orders. That would change the trading pattern and attenuate market swings in relation to more liquid markets.

We try to communicate realistic volume goals for the exchange - our targets (that are very aggressive and we will be very pleased if we hit) are to be TOP100 on the first 3 months of operations of the exchange with general public access and TOP50 at the closing of 6 months.

Today those goals would be about ~3M and ~40M of aggregated total daily volume.

7 Likes
(Bunder) #19

That is a really good and realistic goal, but with the price around $ 2,10 at the moment, we hit already the top75 on CMC.

Really really nice.
Nice and slow, up we go to the top 50 -> top 30 -> top 10 in 2020

(Vt) #20

The top 100 is based on trading volume. The NEX token is unique due to the high fee dividend to its owners. The price will be a result of the volume growth and probably be much higher in market cap ranking than in exchange volume ranking