NEX: Price Floor Projection

(Hypotheticalidentity) #1

One POV: Annual Return
What is the true value of one NEX token? This community has projected price exits, calculated speculative ceilings, and discussed many variables that will add to volume. I think we can use all the provided data to determine a price floor, and to do that let’s examine what traditional markets return for long term investors:

Average Annual Return - past 20 years

  • S&P 500 Index avg annual return 8.6%
  • Residential and diversified real estate investments 10.6%
  • Real estate investment trusts (REITS) 11.8%

I believe NEX will mirror a more traditional investment so I’ve used an annual 10% return as a baseline for my calculation. This yield is what will draw investment funds and savvy investors looking for new asset classes (not to mention NEX’s security status).

Nash Price Floor

The formula provided by Nash based on two-yr staking: (monthly vol.)(0.0019)(.75)/50,000,000=dividend for one token

Fabio mentioned an initial goal of being a top 100 exchange; that’s roughly $1.5M 24hr trading volume per day, equating to $45M monthly trade volume. Based on those numbers, the price floor for one NEX would be $0.15.

(Wait, but the price on Coingecko is showing me $1.25-2.50 per token! Yes, supply and demand on third party/wash traded exchanges has a speculative value, but that’s a completely different discussion…just focusing on price floor here)

To justify the $1 token valuation during the STO last September, the matching engine would need to process $292,397,000 per month for one token to yield a yearly 10% return ($0.10). It’s important to note volume will not remain stagnant, and should grow as new products are released.

Price Floor Chart

The price floor is important because it is the price that will always be attractive to new and existing investors. Some will look at the $0.15 and laugh this off as FUD, but unfortunately, the numbers don’t lie. The blue row highlights the team’s volume goal for the first few months, and the orange denotes where the team would like to be two quarters post launch (aka top 50 exchange). One other interesting note: if the platform achieves it’s competitor volume

There are plenty of other variables that are not factored into this chart, but the focus here is on platform performance and what will keep long term investors buying. Thoughts?

Speculated Returns (not financial advice)
(Olu ) #2

How about ya’ll quit all this price speculation and focus on project launch and mass adoption :tipping_hand_man:

(Cypher Investor) #3

Price speculation plays a part in mass adoption it helps new users evaluate :nash_n:ash, I’d say it contributes to the Nash Effect.

It’s not the be all and end all but it does help new users coming across the project for the first time to get an idea of :nash_n:ash’s potential. Having information available here in the community will help new users decide if and how much they want to get involved. Since we can’t really help out in terms of the project launch (beta testing aside) speculating is one of the ways the community contribute to mass adoption.

(Ant0ni081) #4

so in short your telling us we got screwed at ico? lol maybe i’ll go get some sleep , its late… i’ll come back to this in the morning lol

(Kristiyan G) #5

Lol … everybody rushing to sell now :smiley: I can guarantee 100% you will never see that price. You should never say never but hear it is NEVER !!!

(Lukaskorba) #6

0.15$ sounds very unlikely to me… my bet is the price will never fall down bellow 1$, it just doesn’t make any sense considered max supply, 50% in hands of private investors + the team and the staking in play…

(Vt) #7

Calm down. It’s the price floor.
NEX is one of the few crypto projects that even has a price floor. Many other projects are just speculation.
Price floor + speculation for future growth, that is what the market price of the token will be.

(Mao Mao) #8

im all ready to cash in to buy all the NEX i could if it ever reaches the “price floor” but i know highly likely it never will. because there’s no extra bonuses during ico…and the team is straight up integrity not like other projects we know.

1 Like
(Hypotheticalidentity) #9

@Olu Focusing on “price discovery” actually feeds into garnering mass adoption for $NEX token, and I think establishing a price floor is a good reference point for discussion.

@Ant0ni081, as @vt0 mentioned, the point of the exercise is to determine what the absolute lowest price one $NEX token should be based on performance (or at least what would be attractive to ‘investors’). Imagine if the team’s goal was to avg $45M volume per month for the next 10 years; that’s probably what it would take for $NEX to plummet to $0.15. Thankfully, the team has much loftier goals (reaching 1B users).

For the record, I don’t think $NEX will be traded below $1 when it’s available on security-regulated exchanges.

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(Olu ) #10

Fair enough :+1:

(Kabelman) #11

The thing is that your calculation is wrong.
You compare dividends with price growths. Usually dividends or rent for a house are in the 5% area going down because you don’t get interest (or very low) for just lending the money to the bank.
So in fact dividends got more expensive especially when you don’t need to work as a landlord for that money.
So the assumption should be around 3% yields for that type of investment. Making your calculation off by around 333%. That does not mean the price will grow 3%, thats only the dividends you get.

1 Like
(Alex) #12

Higher yield expectations are more likely because higher risk at this early stage. (more risky investment, higher returns)
I like the original proposed 10% to consider buying in at profitable price.

These caclulations are correct if you do not speculate on future volume increase. That makes sense right now as there is currently no growth curve to calculate future projections from.

Its also what you can find on the stakingnash calculator in the bottom section:

(Kabelman) #13

We have prime examples like KCS who do essentially the same as a token (dividends from the fees) with higher risk cause they are not securities, while also lower upside potential with the lowered fees percentage while the exchange is growing. (only 15% of the fees will be given to token holders on the highest volume step)
These are Valued at around 3-4% and it always adapts to the volume.
I don’t see why people would pay more for KCS and less for NEX in comparison.

(Alex) #14

Interesting comparison. Guess it comes down to how investors asses risk.
KuCoin has a proven track record. NEX has nothing but talking, rumours and only an MVP (D)EX coming in the next month. Remember the original topic is concerning price floor projection and opportunistic price level for institutional entry. Its possible KCS is currently expensive and unattractive for big investors too …

At this point its waiting for Nash MVP to get a first idea how they can really stand out from competition hopefully. Ofcourse one could have 100% faith in the executing team and its targets. Even then the table shows that the token price has to be very low to get a desired 10% return from dividents during early stage period.

(Either way, NEX token wont be liquid enough without decent listings in first place for institutional interest)

1 Like
(Olu ) #15

Dude, your hash criticisms are relentless, huh :sweat_smile:

1 Like
(Hongfei) #16

Maybe there should be a Price Talk section where members can discuss about the floor of the moon freely

1 Like
(Nick) #17

When I developed, I’ve rounded the token prices up, so the minimum was always $1 (gotta be bullish, right? :wink: )… But I like your realistic insights. Therefore, I’ve removed the rounding from the calculator to reflect the calculations from this post, and for people to understand your point better. So now you can see what the actual price floor is on the set variables :rocket:

(Hongfei) #18

nice site. Numbers start to look exciting once Nash get 1B in monthly volume.

Lets hope they do bring on some solid market makers. Maybe even having a Binance Launchpad style IEO platform :sweat_smile: